The overall objective of the research is to better understand the mobile payment market. For this purpose, we designed a multi-actor multi-criteria apprach to detect potential disruptions in this market. To test this approach, we built a prototype with Dr. JS Monzani, PylaDESS. This tool helps us to collect, compute and visualize the data in an efficient and effective way. Moreover, to collect relevant data, we interviewed numerous key Swiss experts working for different industries. We managed to involve the great majority of current decision-makers involved in the mobile payment market in Switzerland.

To decompose the analysis problem, we identified two potential disruptions that could occur in the mobile payment market. The first was a technology-based disruption (i.e. a shift from card-based to phone-based solutions) and the second was an organization-based disruption (i.e. a switch from dominant operator-driven to more self-organized solutions). We used various methods including interviews, the Delphi technique, and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) to analyze the factors enabling or disabling the two disruptions.

Disruption I is technology-based (i.e. a shift from card-based to phone-based solutions). Today, card-based payment schemes are widely accepted. The card technology is well known and used in many industries. However, with high market penetration of mobile phones and the digitalization of the payment process, phone-based solutions could become an inherent threat for current card-based schemes.

Disruption II is organizational-based (i.e. a switch from a dominant operator-driven to a more self-organized solution). Financial institutions and MNOs are dominant actors in the mobile payment market. However, merchants or newcomers could launch independent payment schemes that could compete with the current ones operated exclusively by financial institutions.

To the best of our knowledge, mobile payment research focusing on the industry preferences is still very scarce and should thus be further explored. The success of a mobile payment solution depends considerably on the coordination of industry. Therefore, studying the supply side of the market is a very important task in order to better understand the mobile payment phenomena.

In line with Salo et al. (2003), our research is based on the hypothesis that multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods are suitable for technology foresight.

We used our designed approach to build a model which captures the industry experts' preferences. A consensus in terms of technology and business model is needed in order to enhance the potential success of a mobile payment initiative. By analyzing the various preferences, we try to better understand the factors hindering the deployment a standard mobile payment scheme..

In our research to assess and forecast the Swiss mobile payment market, we selected Electre I (Benayoun et al. 1966) with a group decision feature (Bui and Jarke 1984), which enabled us to integrate the analyses of multiple actors. We contend that Electre I, as an MCDM method, is well adapted for the problem at hand. Electre I allows the decision maker to reveal the ideal alternative with a maximum of advantages and a minimum of inconveniences in the function of various criteria.

PylaDESS
To support our, we designed a GDSS that facilitates interaction with experts during the elicitation of preferences. Moreover, emphasis was placed on enhancing visualization of the input data and outcomes.

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We adopted a reasoning based on the design cycle which consists of build-and-evaluate loops. An artifact is built and assessed with a field study before being refined and reassessed. We conducted 3 iterations during this research. Each time we generated design alternatives and evaluated them in the business environment. We iteratively tried to identify the deficiencies and tried to address them with the next iteration.

In terms of technology (Disruption I), the results show that card-based systems remain preferred from an industry point of view. Moreover, in Switzerland, money (i.e. cash) continues to perform quite well which might delay the deployment of e-/m-payment schemes. Swiss consumers still prefer to use cash for most of their purchases and retailers do not seem to be against this situation. Nonetheless, mobile phones are still seen as a natural evolution of the current payment instruments.

In terms of organizational preferences (Disruption II), the situation is not as clear for determining the dominant actors who would lead mobile payments solutions in the future. Some weak signals indicate that self-organized solutions should not be underestimated. As financial institutions and telcos seem to move quite slowly, it gives the opportunity for newcomers to enter the market with fast reaction time and good flexibility.